Friday, August 28, 2009

CPO 28th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position@ 2365 cut loss @2386

Results.
1 safe, 2 con,7 losses, 7 win.
Average +138points/lot.

Outlook,
still bearish
expect rebound 2360 and 2374.

Strategy,
if CPO >2385, clear all short position
if CPO <2374 on 5 min closing, short, cut loss at 2386
if CPO <2360 on 5 min closing, short cut loss at 2386
if CPO <2346, mild short signal, short, cut loss at previous hourly high + 10 points
if CPO <2331, short signal, short, cut loss at previous 2 bar 5 min high + 10 points.

FKLI 28th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
still holding, @1164.5 cut loss at 1183.5
1179 took profit at 1173.5, profit 6.5 points/lot
no intraday trade.

Results,
3 safe, 0 con, 11 losses, 7 win.
Average -12 points/lots

Outlook,
resistance at 1168.5, 1166,
expect some rebound today.
but still higher to short.

strategy,
if hourly <1178.5, short, cut loss at 1182
if FKLI <1176 on 15 min closing, short, cut loss at 1182
if FKLI 1171.5 < x < 1176, stay out, better short on rebound.
if FKLI <1171.5 on 15 min closing, mild sell signal, short, cut loss 15 min high+3 points
if FKLI < 1167, sell signal, short, cut loss at previous 2 bar high +3 points

Thursday, August 27, 2009

CPO 27th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position established @2392 covered at 2375. profit 17 points.
short again at 2365

Results.
1 safe, 2 con,7 losses, 7 win.
Average +138points/lot.

outlook,
CPO very choppy, only confirm wave b in B complete at 78.6% @2385
critical resistance at 2385.
expect wave C comes in
target 2298 or 2272.

strategy,
if CPO > 2385, clear all short position, stay out.
if CPO <2345, 1st support break, sell on rebound.
if CPO <2331, 2nd support break, sell on rebound.
if CPO < 2323, 3rd support break, sell on rebound.
if CPO < 2298, 4th support break, cautious for profit taking.
if CPO < 2272, 5th support break, cautious for profit taking.

FKLI 27th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
2 price holding, @1164.5, @1179.
no intraday trade.
cut loss @1177, @1184.5

Results,
3 safe, 0 con, 11 losses, 6 win.
Average -18.5 points/lots

Outlook,
still bearish.
but resistance at 1176 and 1182.

strategy,
if FKL > 1182 on high, clear all position.
if FKLI > 1176, clear partial position, take profit.
if FKLI < 1167, sell signal, short, cut loss at previous 15min bar high +3 point on high.
if FKLI < 1160.5, sell signal, short, cut loss at previous 15min bar high +3 point on high

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

CPO 26th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position established @2392 cut loss at 2375.

Results.
1 safe, 2 con,7 losses, 6 win.
Average +121points/lot.

Outlook,
wave b in B complete at 61.8% @2372.
expect wave B complete in 2298 or 2272, 50% or 61.8%.
fall below this levels would indicate further selling pressure.

strategy,
sell on rebound.
yesterday 1 min chart show complete wave 1 and 2
expect today complete wave 3, sell on wave4 buy on wave 5.

if CPO > 2373, cover all short position and stay out.
if CPO < 2331, short signal, short, cut loss at previous peak + 10 points
if CPO < 2298, short signal, short, cut loss at 5min bar high + 10 points.
if CPO < 2272, short signal, short, cut loss at 5 min bar high + 10 points.
if CPO < 2234, short signal, short, cut loss at 15min bar high + 10 points.

FKLI 26th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
2 price holding, @1164.5, @1179.
no intraday trade.
cut loss @1175, @1184.5

Results,
3 safe, 0 con, 11 losses, 6 win.
Average -18.5 points/lots

Outlook,
FKLI still seems bearish. but resistance level 1181.5 must not break.
if break 1174.5 if mild bullish, so i'll out partial.

strategy,
if FKLI > 1181.5 on 15min closing, turn long, cut loss at previous low of 15min + 3points.
if FKLI >1176 on high, close half position. wouldn't not turn long yet.
if FKLI 1176 < x < 1167, stay out or short on rebound.
if FKLI < 1167, short signal, short, cut loss previous 2 bar 15min high + 3 points.
if FKLI <1160.5, short signal, short, cut loss previous 2 bar 15min high + 3 points.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

CPO 25th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position established @2392 cut loss at 2405.

Results.
1 safe, 2 con,7 losses, 6 win.
Average +121points/lot.

Outlook,
still uncertain.
possible wave A already complete. now wave B undergoing.

strategy,
unless manage to short above 2385 and place cut loss at 2405, else, not advisable to go in as i expect shaky market.

expect wild market trading ahead.

change to candlesticks methodology for trading as wave count on minor wave would be more vulnerable.

FKLI 25th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
overnight position 2 level, @1164.5, @1179
cut loss all position at 1184.5
intraday cut loss loss 3 points

Results,
3 safe, 0 con, 11 losses, 6 win.
Average -18.5 points/lots

Outlook,
critical moment,
if can close above 1180.5, bear trend in jeopordy.

strategy,
if FKLI >1180.5 on 15 minute close, cut all short position, turn long, cut loss at previous 15 min bar low.
if FKLI 1174.5 < x < 1180.5, stay calm, don't go in yet.
if FKLI <1174.5 on 15 min close, short signal, short, cut loss at previous 15 min bar high +3 points.

if FKLI <1169 on 15 min close, short signal, short, cut loss at previous 15 min bar high +3.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

CPO 24th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
no position established.
last thursday took profit 30 points after stop triggered @2352.
kena con la.
last friday hit my target but i did not manage to long at 2340

Results.
1 safe, 2 con,7 losses, 6 win.
Average +121points/lot.

Outlook,
CPO should be rebound or turned bullish if 2342 not break.
but i think it's more likely is rebound wave B. will touch 2342 for wave C.
if it's bull run, then it will go up all the way.

strategy,
wait first.
see formation to go in.

FKLI 24th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
sorry for did not update on last friday, was on vacation.
short position still holding.
thursdays intraday profit 1 point

Results,
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 6 win.
Average -15.5 points/lots

Outlook,
based on overnight dow jones closing, it's likely FKLI to rebound
resistance levels at 1169, 1174 and 1180.5

strategy,
if FKLI >1180.5, cover short position, and turn long.
if FKLI 1169 < x < 1174, stay out. short on rebound. cut loss on previous high + 3 points.
if FKLI <1169, after touched, +- 1 point, short, cut loss previous high + 1 point.
if FKLI < 1152, short signal, short, cut loss at 2 previous 15 min bar high + 3 points.
if FKLI <1147, short signal, short, cut loss at 2 previous 15 min bar high + 3points.
if FKLI < 1137, short signal.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

CPO 20th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
rolled position to active month.
oct trade short 2500, covered 2406, profit 94 points.
nov short 2382. stop loss change to 2352.

Results.
1 safe, 1 con,7 losses, 5 win.
Average +91points/lot.

Outlook,
CPO seems possible to rebound but must not be above 2342 levels.
if above 2342, i'll stay out as i loss the wave count.

strategy,
if CPO >2342 on 5 min closing, cover short position, stay out.
if CPO < 2342on 5 min closing, try to get intraday short but cut loss at today high + 10 points.
prepare to take profit soon.

FKLI 20th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
still holding short @1164.5 stop 1162.
intraday sold @1161.5 triggered at 1159, profit 2.5 points.

Results,
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 5 win.
Average -16.5 points/lots

Outlook,
support seen at 1147, 1137.
possible to rebound.
however, still bearish.

strategy,
if FKLI >1161.5, cover short position.
if FKLI <1147 on 15 min closing, mild short signal, short, cut loss on previous bar high +3 points
if FKLI <1137 on 15 min closing, break 38.1%, short, cut loss at previous bar high + 3 point, as market might be shaky that time.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

CPO 19th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position @2500 still holding.
cut loss remain @2435.

Results.
1 safe, 1 con,7 losses, 4 win.
Average - 3 points/lot.

Outlook,
still looking bearish.
resistance at 2420, 2440.
but previous low at 2421.

strategy,
if CPO <2420, on hourly closing, rebound possible to finish. short cut loss at previous high + 10 points.
if CPO <2355, on 5 min closing, short, cut loss at 2366 + 10 points.
if CPO <2298, on 5 min closing, short, cut loss at 15min bar high + 10 points.

FKLI 19th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
Short position @82 covered @1166, profit 16 point
short again @1164.5 cut loss at 1175

Results,
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 4 win.
Average -19 points/lots

Outlook,
Bearish possible to end. resistance at 1178
have to be careful.
however, if not break at 1166, 1171, or 1178, bearish run still continue.

strategy,
if FKLI >1171, on 15 min closing, cover short position. possible to turn long if >1178.
if FKLI <1166, on hourly high, then can try to short. but cut loss would be 1168.
if FKLI < 1162, on 15 min closing, short signal, sell, cut loss at previous bar high + 3 points.
if FKLI < 1157, bear market confirmed. short, cut loss at 1166 +3 ( if no new high)

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

CPO 18th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position still holding.
cut loss change to 2435.

Results.
1 safe, 1 con,7 losses, 4 win.
Average - 3 points/lot.

Outlook,
CPO reach projection @2337 upon yesterday closing. complete wave 3.
CPO possible to rebound today, but must not be higher than 2424.

strategy,
sell on rebound or choose to stay out and hold position until stop triggered.

if CPO > 2424, clear short position.
if CPO 2390 < x < 2424, stay out, or short on rebound based on candlesticks.
profit target at 2300 or 2250

FKLI 18th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
Short position still holding, @82, stop changed to 1185

Results,
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 3 win.
Average -35 points/lots

Outlook,
Bearish is confirmed.
yesterday hit 223.6%
possible to rebound today.
aim at 50%@1171, 61.8%@1174.5

Strategy,
today, wait only, rebound sell. break lower, don't rush to sell.
break lower , sell only for intraday trading, trade for fun. not good for position.

if FKLI >1185, clear all position,
if FKLI 1159 < x <1175, sell on rebound or stay out.
if FKLI 1154, short signal, sell, but intraday, cut loss at previous 15min bar high.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

CPO 17th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position established @2500. cut loss at 2521 + 10 points.

Results.
1 safe, 1 con,7 losses, 4 win.
Average - 3 points/lot.

Outlook,
there are 3 possibility in this CPO trading.
1st, now is wave 2 ,correction from 1964 - 2521.
- support 2390, 2300 2250.

2nd, now is wave 5 of wave c.
- target still at 1930.

3rd, now is pure bear trend. but i think it's not likely.
if it's bear trend, now should be wave 5. but it already cross with wave 1 low.

strategy,
closing at 2441
if CPO >2480, short position covered. but still aiming to short if can't break above 2520.
if CPO <2424, wave 3 or wave C is confirmed. stop will move to 2440 to 2450, depend on situation, decision on candlesticks.

if CPO <2390, 1st levels meet. cautious. scare might stop here.

FKLI 17th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position @82 still holding.
cut loss move to 1200.

Results:
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 3 win.
Average -35 points/lots

Outlook,
market still consolidate.
range from 1172 - 1196. uptrend channel. i think it's more like upwards diagonal.
it's possible wave 3 tail end, possible reach 1191, 1196 or possible already met target.

strategy,
if FKLI >1191, on 15 min chart closing, short position cut loss. but cautious around 1191, 1196, possible to short again based on candle signal. but i'll follow plan cut loss first, then short later.

if FKLI > 1189.5, possible reach target will be 1191, 1196, 1198, 1209.

if FKLI 1178 < x <1190, stay out. trading based on support resistance strategy.

if FKLI <1178, on 15min chart closing, sell signal, cut loss at 2 previous 15 min bar high +3 points.

next support at 1172, 1163.

situation will be change according to fibonacci projection.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

CPO 12th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
no position established.

Results
1 safe, 1 con,7 losses, 4 win.
Average - 3 points/lot

Outlook,
short term bearish.
today i finally spot an EW formation.
complete wave3 or wave C at 2471.
if tomorrow were to open lower, bearish market is likely.

Strategy,
if CPO >2471, stay out, remain bullish. aim at 2510
if CPO <2455, short, cut loss at 2476.

FKLI 12th Aug 2009

As yesterday
short position @1182 still holding, stop still remain at 1191.

Results:
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 3 win.
Average -35 points/lots

Outlook,
Market should be end by tomorrow.
Bearish.

Strategy,
if FKLI >1188, upon 15 min closing, cut loss @1191
if FKLI 1188 < x < 1178, stayout,
if FKLI < 1178, sell signal, short, cut loss at 3 points higher in 15min chart.
if FKLI <1163, sell signal, short, cut loss at 3 points higher in 15min chart

CPO 11th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
cut loss @2365
losses 58

Results,
1 safe, 1 con,7 losses, 4 win.
Average losses 3 points/lot

Outlook,
still uncertain about the market direction.
should have stay out.

FKLI 11th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position still holding @1182. stop @1191

Result
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 3 win.

Outlook,
Market sideways.

Strategy,
stay out awhile. to see how's the market.

If FKLI > 1188, in 15 min closing, cut loss at 1191.
if FKLI < 1170, in 15min closing, short, cut loss previous 15min bar high + 3 points.

Monday, August 10, 2009

CPO 10th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short still holding
cut loss remain @2355

Results,
1 safe, 1 con,6 losses, 4 win.
Average profit 55 points/lot

Outlook,
still uncertain about the market direction.
should have stay out. did not follow plan.

FKLI 10th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position established @1182. stop @1191

Result
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 3 win.

Outlook,
Bearish trend in jeapordy
possible to reach 1199 or 1208.

Strategy,
stay out awhile. to see how's the market.

If FKLI > 1188, in 15 min closing, cut loss at 1191.
if FKLI < 1170, in 15min closing, short, cut loss previous 15min bar high + 3 points.

Friday, August 7, 2009

CPO 7th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short still holding
cut loss remain @2355

Results,
1 safe, 1 con,6 losses, 4 win.
Average profit 55 points/lot

Outlook,
still uncertain about the market direction.
should have stay out. did not follow plan.

FKLI 7th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
no position established.

Result
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 3 win.

Outlook,
Bearish trend in jeapordy
possible to reach 1199 or 1208.

Strategy,
stay out awhile. to see how's the market.

If FKLI < 1183, in 15 min closing, short, cut loss at 1188.
if FKLI < 1170, in 15min closing, short, cut loss previous 15min bar high + 3 points.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

CPO 6th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
overnight short position covered @2355, loss 46 points
short again @2307. holding, cut loss @2355

results:
1 safe, 1 con,6 losses, 4 win.

average profit: 55 point/ lots

Outlook,
still uncertain about the market direction.
should have stay out. did not follow plan.

FKLI 6th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position covered @1180, loss 4 points

Results:
3 safe, 0 con, 10 losses, 3 win.
as total: losses.
Average : loss 35 point/lots

Outlook,
still looking topped around 1182 levels despite false break new high.

Strategy,
If FKLI >1182 on 15 min closing, turn long, cut loss at 15 min previous bar low
if FKLI 1182 < x < 1170, stay out
if FKLI < 1170, sell signal, short, cut loss at 1171.5 + 3 points.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

CPO 5th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
i turn long @ 2320, took profit @2341,
profit 21 points/ lots

holding short @2309 cut loss at 2355.

results:
1 safe, 0 con,5 losses, 4 win.

average, profit 101point/ lots.

Outlook,
direction will uncertain. resistance at 2349 previous high.

Strategy,
if CPO >2355, clear all position

FKLI 5th Aug 2009

Sorry for not updating, was busy.

As yesterday,
short position still holding, cut loss at 1180

Results:
3 safe, 0 con, 9 losses, 3 win.
as total: losses.

Outlook,
still bear but in critical stage.
possible market might be sideways.

Strategy,
if FKLI >1182, bullish, turn long, cut loss at previous 15 min bar low - 3 points.
if FKLI 1179 < x < 1170, stay out,
if FKLI <1169.5, short, cut loss at previous bar high + 3 points.

Monitor,

Tuesday, Pending home sales and Personal income. Testimony from FED governor Tarullo on tuesday regarding bank supervision

Wednesday, ADP employment index, ISM services and Factory orders.

Thursday,weekly Jobless claims.

Friday Non-farm payrolls, the Unemployment rate, and Consumer credit.

Monday, August 3, 2009

CPO 4th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
no position established.

results:
1 safe, 0 con,5 losses, 3 win.

outlooks,
possible CPO really riding on bull rally wave 5 but i'm not sure which levels it hit bottom as my target 1933 not reach.

strategy,
if CPO >2310, long, cut loss at hourly low - 10 points.
if CPO < 2310, stay out, see what is the wave count.

FKLI 4th Aug 2009

As yesterday,
short position still holding.
stops remain at 1180.

Results:
3 safe, 0 con, 9 losses, 3 win.
as total: losses.

Outlook,
Bear rally in critical stage.
resistance levels must not break 1182. if break bull again

Strategy,
if FKLI >1182, bullish, turn long, cut loss at previous 15 min bar low - 3 points.
if FKLI >1177 on 15min closing, cut short position.
if FKLI 1177 < x < 1160, stay out.
if FKLI <1160, short, cut loss at previous 15 min bar high + 3 points.

Monitor,

Dow Jones closing,
must close above 100 as before market close, already above 100 for futures.

Monday, Construction spending and ISM at 10:00,Auto sales in the afternoon. Foreign exchange rates will be released

Tuesday, Pending home sales and Personal income. Testimony from FED governor Tarullo on tuesday regarding bank supervision

Wednesday, ADP employment index, ISM services and Factory orders.

Thursday,weekly Jobless claims.

Friday Non-farm payrolls, the Unemployment rate, and Consumer credit.

Nikkei trading is very important.

Thought of the day

Market is boring..........keep holding short and stay out from CPO

thinking to express my thoughts....

in trading.......a lot of people keep on looking for the secret formula in order to win in trading.
doesn't matter if he trade forex, futures, shares, commodity.......

my first question,
does this 'holy grail' exist?
does this secret formula have absolute winning in trading..........immune from losses?

let's think.........

my answer to this question is NO........100% NO

Sunday, August 2, 2009

CPO 3rd Aug 2009

As yesterday,
no position established
short position cut
loss 90 points/lot

results:
1 safe, 0 con,5 losses, 3 win.

average, still profit 80point/ lots.

Outlook,
temporary turn bullish but not sure what going on, so i'll stay out from market awhile so that have clear picture.

FKLI 3rd Aug 2009

As yesterday,
Short position still holding.
stop remain at 1180 levels.
i manage to roll my position at the same price @1174
previous july contract settle at 1166.5
profit 7.5 points/ lots

Results:
3 safe, 0 con, 9 losses, 3 win.
as total: losses.

Outlook,
Bearish, but expect some rebound on monday. looking at 1172 levels

Strategy,
if FKLI >1178. short position cut loss.
if FKLI 1162 < x <11 78, hold short position.
if FKLI <1162 on 15 min closing, short, cut loss at 1170
if FKLI <1158, short signal, short, cut loss at previous 15min bar high + 3 points.

Monitor,
Dow JOnes +17

Nikkei morning trading

Monday, Construction spending and ISM at 10:00,Auto sales in the afternoon. Foreign exchange rates will be released

Tuesday, Pending home sales and Personal income. Testimony from FED governor Tarullo on tuesday regarding bank supervision

Wednesday, ADP employment index, ISM services and Factory orders.

Thursday,weekly Jobless claims.

Friday Non-farm payrolls, the Unemployment rate, and Consumer credit.